Trading places, part 2

Last week, I told you about three players you should trade for and three you should trade away, as your league trade deadline approaches. I suggested that you go beyond simply looking to buy low and sell high because sometimes it’s advisable to sell low, or buy high. Look at your roster, and then look at the roster of each team in your league before making any trade offers.

This week, I am going to offer another three players you should trade for and three you should trade away. However, before we get into that, there’s another important consideration – your team record. If you’re 8-2 or 7-3, you can make a trade that might benefit you more down the road. But if you’re 5-5, or worse, you’d better make a trade that will benefit you now.

Let me use the example of A.J. Dillon. If you were fortunate enough to have Dillon rostered before Aaron Jones was injured in week 10, consider yourself fortunate. Dillon went from behind an RB4 to an RB1 in an instant. But it’s likely that he will only be an RB1 for one or two games. When Jones returns, Dillon will return to a mere mortal, putting up RB3 numbers at best.

Again, if you’re the fantasy manager at 5-5, you might want to overpay and acquire Dillon. If you are deep in wide receivers and trade D.K. Metcalf, or CeeDee Lamb, it might be worth it. That’s assuming you need an RB1 that can produce 20 or more points per game. If you have two running backs that can give you at least 15 points, you may not want to make that trade.  

With only four games left in the fantasy season, your position in the standings matters a lot.  The two games Dillon is likely to start could make a huge difference if you’re fighting for a playoff spot. I think Dillon is a top-12 RB for Week 11, and I might be short-selling him. He’s got legitimate top-five upside. But if you’re 7-3 and can get Metcalf for Dillon, you do that deal. 

If you’re 7-3 and have Dillon, moving him may not be the worst idea. Jones’ injury could linger, of course, but chances are if he’s healthy, Dillon is going to go back to being a fringe starter in a few weeks. Which won’t mean all that much to you come the playoffs. So, trying to move him for someone like Metcalf might be a really, really good idea in the long run.

As I shared in a previous column, I lost Derrick Henry on my home league team. Earlier in the season, I had also lost Chris Carson. He has a neck injury. Although he resumed practice last week, he didn’t play in week 10. His status is still up in the air in week 11. If you have Carson rostered, you have to accept the fact that he may not be back at all in 2021.  

Suffice it to say that I’ve been scrambling to pick up running backs that I can start in recent weeks. In week 9, I put in a claim for James Conner. I was surprised to find Conner on the waiver wire, recalling that he had been dropped a week earlier (probably because of byes). I got him and stashed him on my bench, where he proceeded to put up 40.30 fantasy points.

I don’t blame myself for benching Conner because Chase Edmonds was still healthy and ahead of Conner in the depth chart. But Edmonds was injured in the first quarter of that game. Entering week 10, Conner was a hot topic and I sold him on the buzz. I threw in Odell Beckham, who was gathering dust on my bench, and was able to land a big fish – wideout Stefon Diggs.

This was not an easy trade to make because Conner will be an RB1 until Edmonds returns (or Conner gets injured). But I’m looking beyond the next three or four weeks. If Diggs stays healthy, he’ll be a solid WR1 the rest of the season. This is just another example of a timely trade – one you can make right now if you have Conner rostered. Sell high if you can afford to.

Here are three more players I suggest you consider trading for:

DARRELL HENDERSON, RB, LA RAMS

For managers looking to bolster their rosters by acquiring a top-tier running back, Henderson might just be the perfect buy-low option ahead of Week 11. The entire Rams team forgot to show up the last two weeks, and Henderson had two single-digit games. Game script worked against him, but better times are ahead. Trade Conner, or someone like Michael Pittman for Henderson.

D.J. MOORE, WR, CAROLINA

When it comes to Sam Darnold, things can only get better for the Panthers. Whether Darnold starts to play better, or P.J. Walker plays better in his stead, better quarterback play will boost Moore’s fortunes. He’s had three straight single-digit games, but do you recall how he started the season averaging more than 22 points in the first four games? Buy low on Moore now.  

JALEN HURTS, QB, PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles had a pass or a sack on just 28.6% of their snaps in Weeks 8 and 9. For context, the lowest rate in the NFL this season is 49.8%. I can buy the Eagles being more run-heavy than your average team, but Hurts is going to get back to around 30 pass attempts per game and he’ll keep rushing for 60 yards per game. Try trading Kyler Murray for Hurts and a back or receiver.   

Here are three more players I suggest you trade away:

JONATHAN TAYLOR, RB, INDIANAPOLIS

I remember when people were disappointed in Taylor, back in week 3. In seven games since, Taylor is averaging 25.4 PPR points per game. That’s Christian McCaffrey territory. However, he’s averaging 1.36 Fantasy points per touch in that stretch; the best McCaffrey has ever averaged was 1.17 per touch. See if you can trade Taylor for Dalvin Cook and a good wideout.

CHRIS GODWIN, WR, TAMPA BAY

The good news for Godwin is we don’t know when Antonio Brown is going to be back from his ankle injury. But we do know he’ll be back at some point because the Bucs would’ve put him on IR if he wasn’t. Godwin is an amazing player, but he’s been beyond amazing with Brown gone.

He’s averaged 14.7 PPR points per game with Brown active compared to 26.6 with Brown out.

LAMAR JACKSON, QB, BALTIMORE

I don’t understand the hype surrounding Jackson. Other analysts are saying to buy Jackson now, but I guess I’m a contrarian. He’s QB5 right now for the season, and he’s got Chicago, Cleveland (twice), and Pittsburgh in the next four games. See if the disappointed manager with Aaron Jones wants to trade him for Jackson. If you have a winning record, do this deal right now.

Follow Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s