From my perspective, the fantasy football draft is like a chess game. You plan your moves, but you never know what your opponent is going to do to force you to change those plans. The difference is in a chess game, you only have one opponent, and in a football league you have nine (or more).
I have a plan for draft day, but I know my plan will have to be altered – perhaps many times during the course of the 16-round draft. With that said, I’m going to share with you my plan. For starters, I have calculated there is at least a 50/50 chance I will select Alvin Kamara in the first round.
Kamara is expected to go late in the first round of ESPN drafts. Everyone assigns a value to a player, and I have him as my third-best player. What that means is that if I have pick 3-7, I have a good chance to get Kamara. If I get the first pick, I’m taking Le”Veon Bell, and if I get the second pick, I will select Todd Gurley.
In fantasy football, a common belief is that you should “handcuff” your top running back(s). To handcuff a player(s) is to take an insurance policy out on him by selecting their backup during the draft. If he gets injured, you can expect the backup to get his touches. You don’t handcuff all your picks – just the best.
Kamara’s backup is Mark Ingram. I’ve already described how Kamara and Ingram carried my team last year. It was a unique situation in New Orleans, where the Saints had two guys that scored enough fantasy points to easily rate an RB1. I had both on my team, and they dominated throughout the season.
This year, Ingram is expected to be drafted in the sixth round because he was suspended for four games for testing positive to a banned substance. That’s the only reason why he’s projected in the sixth round. If I get Kamara, I plan to draft Ingram in the fifth round. In that way, I should be ahead of all of the sheep.
Tomorrow: Drafting a winning team, part five
Doubting Thomas' Fantasy Sports 